| A．以民本主义为执政的指导思想 | B．中国古代王朝监察体制 |
| C．遵照儒家标准的官僚制度系统 | D．地方势力制约中央集权 |
In the faraway land, there was a beautiful kingdom with its unique rule. The rule said, everyone may become the king, with all of his rights to govern the country for five years. After that he must be caught, his body will be tied and he will be thrown away to a remote island where the jungle is thick and there are plenty of wild animals and no human.
Then, one by one, people became the king. The first man said, “OK, I’m ready to be the king.” And he became a king for five years. What he did in his five years was enjoying his position. He threw big parties, went to many beautiful places, married many women, collected many luxurious things and did other things that pleased himself. Those were all he did, and he never prepared anything for his future.
Every other king was the same until a young man came and declared his wish. By the constitution (宪法) he was granted his wish. He would be the king for five years before being thrown away to the island. But he thought that even if he had a happy and free life in the five years, his life as a king would come to an end at last. He was always thinking.
And not very long after that, he made a surprising decision.
Finally, the time came when the king had to be thrown away to the island.
On March 7, 1907, the English statistician Francis Galton published a paper which illustrated what has come to be known as the “wisdom of crowds” effect. The experiment of estimation he conducted showed that in some cases, the average of a large number of independent estimates could be quite accurate.
This effect capitalizes on the fact that when people make errors, those errors aren’t always the same. Some people will tend to overestimate, and some to underestimate. When enough of these errors are averaged together, they cancel each other out, resulting in a more accurate estimate. If people are similar and tend to make the same errors, then their errors won’t cancel each other out. In more technical terms, the wisdom of crowds requires that people’s estimates be independent. If for whatever reasons, people’s errors become correlated or dependent, the accuracy of the estimate will go down.
But a new study led by Joaquin Navajas offered an interesting twist (转折) on this classic phenomenon. The key finding of the study was that when crowds were further divided into smaller groups that were allowed to have a discussion, the averages from these groups were more accurate than those from an equal number of independent individuals. For instance, the average obtained from the estimates of four discussion groups of five was significantly more accurate than the average obtained from 20 independent individuals.
In a follow-up study with 100 university students, the researchers tried to get a better sense of what the group members actually did in their discussion. Did they tend to go with those most confident about their estimates? Did they follow those least willing to change their minds? This happened some of the time, but it wasn’t the dominant response. Most frequently, the groups reported that they “shared arguments and reasoned together”. Somehow, these arguments and reasoning resulted in a global reduction in error. Although the studies led by Navajas have limitations and many questions remain, the potential implications for group discussion and decision-making are enormous.
1．What is paragraph 2 of the text mainly about?| A．The methods of estimation. | B．The underlying logic of the effect. |
| C．The causes of people’s errors. | D．The design of Galton’s experiment. |
| A．the crowds were relatively small | B．there were occasional underestimates |
| C．individuals did not communicate | D．estimates were not fully independent |
| A．The size of the groups. | B．The dominant members. |
| C．The discussion process. | D．The individual estimates. |
| A．Unclear. | B．Dismissive. | C．Doubtful. | D．Approving. |
Malachi Bradley doesn’t show signs of being panicked or worried when he talks about how he spent 29 hours lost in a rough area of the High Uintas. “I didn’t really feel scared. I was just trying to get back to my family,” the 10-year-old said Tuesday in a quiet, almost matter-of-fact way just one day after he was rescued. When asked what happened to him, he simply replied: “A lot of things. I hiked a long way.”
Malachi confidently believes he could have survived two or three weeks on his own, dressed in only his jeans and his shoes, and with no food, tent or blankets. But the look in the eyes of Malachi’s father, Danny Bradley, told a different story, one of much deeper concern, when he realized his son was missing. “It’s a horrible feeling, just knowing how vast the Uinta Mountains are,” he said, “I quickly felt how severe the situation was.”
Malachi recalled his great adventure Tuesday. He showed no signs of going without food for a day or sleeping between rocks for an hour at night to block the cold wind. But he admitted when he got home to his own bed on Monday night that he was asleep within a minute of his head hitting his pillow and stayed there for 12 hours.
His adventure began Sunday when Malachi, his father, two siblings(兄弟姐妹), and a family friend were about to leave their campsite near Paul Lake to go home. “We were just going to cook up a fish he caught and head out, and,” Danny Bradley paused, “it ended up being a lot longer.”
Malachi said he went to look for mushrooms about 10:30 a.m. He had just walked a long way when he encountered a snake. He was so frightened that he decided to get back but he could no longer see the lake where his campsite was set up. He knew he was lost.
Malachi didn’t have his whistle with him that he normally carries in case he gets lost when exploring.
But on Monday afternoon, Malachi took off his shoes to take a break in an open area and heard another helicopter nearby.
，不计空气阻力和粒子的重力。在粒子从a运动到b的过程中，下列说法正确的是（ ）
A．c点距MN的距离为 | B．a、b两点间的距离为 |
C．粒子在c点的速度大小为 | D．粒子运动的加速度大小恒定不变 |
| 拉丁美洲独立 | 亚洲觉醒 | 非洲抗争 | |
| 主要途径 | 独立战争 | 民主革命 | 武装斗争 |
| 主要反抗对象 | 西班牙、葡萄牙 | 英国 | 英国、意大利等 |
| 领导阶级 | 大地产主 | 民族资产阶级 | 政党、宗教、皇帝等 |
| A．英国是占有殖民地最广阔的国家 | B．亚洲资本主义发展水平世界领先 |
| C．民族解放运动呈现出多元化特征 | D．拉美走上了独立自主发展的道路 |
材料 春秋战国时期，市场不断拓展，交换空前扩大；金属货币广为流行；商人和商业资本迅速发展。商品经济迎来了它有史以来的第一个发展高峰……到西汉武帝时期，统治者全面推行控制和干预商业的政策，商品经济遭到沉重打击。
——据林文勋杨华星《也谈中国封建社会商品经济发展的特点》
地层的接触关系是指新老地层在空间上的相互关系或者叠置状态。沉积岩地层之间的接触关系通常有整合、假整合和不整合三种情况。整合接触指的是新老地层平行并且连续，表明地层形成期间该地没有发生构造运动。假整合接触指的是新老地层平行但不连续，表明地层形成期间该地发生过整体的地壳升降运动，有过沉积间断或者地面的侵蚀，但是没有发生过褶皱运动。不整合接触指的是新老地层不平行并且不连续，表明地层形成期间发生过褶皱运动、地面侵蚀和再沉积的过程。下图示意某区城地质平面。完成下面小题。
| A．① | B．② | C．③ | D．④ |
| A．O—P岩层沉积水平挤压岩浆活动断层J—K岩层沉积 |
| B．O—P岩层沉积断层J—K岩层沉积水平挤压岩浆活动 |
| C．O—P岩层沉积岩浆活动水平挤压断层J—K岩层沉积 |
| D．O—P岩层沉积岩浆活动J—K岩层沉积断层水平挤压 |
| A．岩层相对下降 | B．侵蚀相对较弱 | C．岩石比较坚硬 | D．沉积条件较好 |
（
且
），若
，
是假命题，则实数a的取值范围是
搜索
